Iran and Pearl Harbor syndrome

03.05.06

MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti political commentator Pyotr Romanov)

The Paris meeting on Iran, which the media dubbed "secret" because
journalists were barred from it from start to finish, ended in failure as
expected. The positions of the sides remained the same. The United States
wants the UN Security Council to pass the toughest possible resolution on
Iran's nuclear file. By and large, the Europeans are leaning toward the U.S.
proposal, while permanent members of the Security Council Moscow and Beijing
insist on talks. The negotiators were trying hard to conceal what has long
become an open secret.

Trying to help Beijing and Moscow out of the predicament, U.S. Ambassador to
the UN John Bolton has suggested that they should abstain from voting on the
problem at the Security Council. If the Council is torn apart by
contradictions and fails to exert pressure on Iran, the U.S. and other
countries may themselves punish Iran. Other U.S. officials have expressed
the same opinion. U.S. State Department spokesman Sean McCormack has just
made another statement to this effect.

Moscow also has to adjust its position. Chairman of the Duma committee on
international affairs Konstantin Kosachyov has just declared that Iran's
ostentatious refusal to comply with the Security Council requirements was
fraught with serious consequences. He did not rule out sanctions against
Iran.

It is even more interesting to hear the opinions of intelligence officers,
military men and independent experts. U.S. intelligence spokesmen openly
admit that they know very little about Iran; such statements, however,
should not calm Tehran down because they clearly show that the U.S. and its
foremost allies are channeling all the necessary financial, material and
intellectual resources into the effort. It is hardly a coincidence that when
U.S.-Iranian dispute reached its peak, the military announced successful
testing at the Eglin air base in Florida of the 10-ton Massive Ordnance Air
Burst (MOAB), which the press immediately dubbed the Mother of All Bombs.
The use of tactical nuclear arms, primarily anti-bunker weapons, has not
been ruled out, either. It is not surprising that Moscow insists on
negotiations - it does not want a nuclear war near its borders, all the more
so since nuclear issue is no bluff. Former U.S. Secretary of State Henry
Kissinger said that the American military should analyze all options against
Iran, including the use of nuclear weapons.

It is not merely the doctrine of a preventive strike that is pushing the
U.S. to be tough. In effect, the doctrine itself reflects the painful Pearl
Harbor syndrome, and a highly dubious assumption that it was possible to nip
Hitler in the bud if the U.S. had intervened in Europe earlier. The trauma
inflicted on the U.S. by the barbarous hostage seizure in Iran has not
healed, either. Good old Freud is here again.

Finally, the Americans are worried by some forecasts. Zbigniew Brzezinski
thinks that the U.S. will wage war with Iran for 30 years and lose its world
supremacy as a result. This prediction suggests the conclusion - either not
go to war at all, or strike without mercy and win a quick victory. Thus, the
American Eagle is now looking around with particular attention and is ready
to nip in the bud anything it perceives as an attack. Invasion of Iran on
the basis of unverified data may be just a prelude, all the more so since
presumption of innocence does not apply to Iran. Defending its right to a
civilian nuclear program, Tehran has already said too much and got bogged
down in contradictions.

Even some independent Russian experts believe that war is inevitable.
Chairman of the Presidium of the Institute of Globalization Problems Mikhail
Delyagin said: "I think that the actions, which have been taken, and the
propaganda accompaniment, which we have been hearing, give us enough grounds
to predict that the decision on a missile attack: has been made. Considering
the election race, this should happen in late spring or summer."

It is rumored that in Yerevan, capital of Armenia, wealthy Iranians of Azeri
background have already rushed to buy housing, just in case:

In turn, the press is trying to predict what Iran will do in return. Quoting
its sources in Tehran, the British Sunday Times writes that Iran is ready
for an adequate reply. There are 40,000 trained suicide bombers, who will
attack American, Israeli and British targets, 29 of which have already been
selected. The Iranian president is talking about an asymmetrical blow at
Israel. Tehran has also repeatedly threatened to blockade the Strait of
Hormuz.

To sum up, Pearl Harbor and the good old Freud are spelling a lot of
trouble. -0-